2013/14 World cotton consumption and ending stocks will increase in the year
Release time:
05-09
Source:
Xinhua
Business News on May 21
Global 2013/14 cotton mills are expected to use 0.1104 billion bales, up 2% from 2012/13, reflecting a promising world economic outlook. The World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth of 3.3 per cent in 2013 and 4.0 per cent in 2014. While the IMF forecasts relatively weak economic activity in developed economies, the economic outlook for emerging and developing economies (5.3 per cent in 2013 and 5.7 per cent in 2014) is more positive and is expected to favor world final cotton use.
China's 2013/14 textile mills are expected to use 36 million bales, the same as the previous year, accounting for 1/3 of global consumption. China continues to implement the national reserve cotton procurement, resulting in domestic cotton prices continue to be higher than the level of the world market. As a result, domestic spinning profitability is severely constrained, forcing mills to rely on imports of cotton yarn from India and Pakistan, and fiber blending favors lower-priced polyester.
India's 2013/14 cotton consumption is expected to hit a new high of 23.5 million bales, up 3% from the previous year. 2013/14 India's textile mills are expected to account for 21% of world cotton consumption, up 2 percentage points from the previous year. The consumption of 2013/14 cotton textile mills in Pakistan is expected to be 12 million bales, an increase of 4% over the previous year. For the third consecutive year, the annual consumption of textile mills has increased. The increased use of textile mills in India and Pakistan represents a stable to promising economic outlook, as well as the external impact of China's domestic cotton policy, providing a competitive advantage to South Asian spinning mills. Indonesia and Thailand are expected to consume 2.45 million packages and 1.6 million packages respectively in 2013/14, up 4% and 7% respectively from the previous year. Vietnam's 2013/14 textile mills are expected to consume 2.35 million bales, up 7% from the previous year.
Turkey is expected to consume 6.1 million bales in 2013/14, an increase of 2%(100,000 bales) over the previous year, accounting for 6% of world cotton consumption. Brazil and the United States are expected to consume 4.2 million and 3.5 million packages, respectively, up 4% and 3% from the previous year. The IMF's April 2013 World Economic Outlook report predicts that Brazil's economic growth in 2013 and 2014 will be 3% and 4%, respectively. The report also predicts that the U.S. economy will grow by 1.9 percent and 3.0 percent respectively in the two years.
Global inventories at the end of 2013/14 are expected to reach a new high of 92.7 million bales, up 9% from the previous year, with production exceeding consumption for the fourth year. The reason for the substantial increase in world stocks is the assumption that China continues to implement domestic cotton price support and reserve policies. China's ending inventory almost tripled in 2011/12, is expected to increase by 55% in 2012/13, and is expected to increase by another 20% in 2013/14, as the national reserve increases to about 50 million bales. If these forecasts come true, China will account for 63% of global ending inventories in 2013/14, up 6 percentage points from the previous year. As China's government reserves account for an increasing proportion of world inventories, inventories outside China are expected to decrease by nearly 2 million bales. The reduction of stocks available for consumption and trade favors world prices and is therefore a factor in promoting world cotton production and curbing consumption.
2013/14 Brazil's ending inventory is expected to be 5.7 million bales, up 4% from the previous year. Pakistan's closing inventory in 2013/14 is expected to be 3.2 million bales, up 9% from the previous year (maintaining the ratio of 5.5% of the global closing inventory last year). 2013/14 Ending inventories in the United States and India are expected to increase by 25% and 6% respectively from the previous year to 3 million bales and 7.4 million bales.
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